Necessity for Modularity

The cost to enter the space economy is high. It it is time, capital, and labor intensive. And yet large corporations and billionaires will not be able to develop the space industry to a point where it is a part of our culture.

With only a few large players in the game there's a limit to how many goals can be scored until everyone is crippled. Even innovative companies like SpaceX will reach a critical mass where they perform only particular duties in the industry. The industry will stagnate unless smaller players can become a part of it.

So what is a strategy that smaller companies and individuals could take in order to make a mark in the space economy.

Let's use a theoretical example, Space-Based Solar Power. This concept for powering the world has been around for decades. The concept of using an unobstructed view of the largest fusion reactor in existence (the sun) is very enticing. If space solar power could be implemented then it would solve many of the world's energy problems.

Here is the problem. Space based solar power requires huge initial investment. Basically the lifetime cost of a nuclear power plant is what it would take to build a comparable orbital solar array. This is not a feasible business plan. No matter how great the design or promising the impact 16-20 billion dollars up front is not something people rush to.

So how does one take something hugely expensive and reduce the cost. Break it up into little pieces. Small companies and individuals need to lay out strategies where what they invest in today will still be useful 10 years from now. In this way the cost of something huge can be spread over years and incrementally built. For orbital solar a specific direction might be to develop something similar to the orbital power plant where te company creates smaller modules to be attached to ships and stations to serve as a temporary power source. When a significant number of cells have been placed in orbit, years from the first, then the modules could be combined with transmitter to beam the power to earth instead.

Modularity has to be the foundation of any small company wishing to build big things. The giant one hit wonder is not feasible. They must find a way to break it down. A mars colony into single identical modules. A telescope mirror into hundreds of smaller mirrors.

Modularity, building small identical things that can become larger individual things is very scalable and adaptable. If a small company is making habitats for Mars and has simply created a small-tent-like module that connects to others, then the product is as available to a single fanatic as it is to a giant corporation. And the producing company is able to make money from selling one as easily as selling a hundred.

Breaking larger structures down into multiple pieces also decreases the complexity of the design and increases its adaptability. Imagine the difference between having to redo the plumbing of an entire space station or just of the new modules.

Every new private space company is adopting this idea of breaking down the grand dream into individual components that can pay for themselves on a small scale while remaining relevant on the large scale. Bigelow Aerospace is creating, not space stations, but space station modules. Planetary resources is not creating a single advanced asteroid hunting satellite but a swarm of small satellites.

Modularity reduces cost and ensures that a viable product is created more quickly. If anyone is considering creating a space company and they are not a billionaire, they must design the product to be modular and relevant for years. This ensures scalability, adaptability, redundancy, and early returns.

The dreams of launching an entire space station or colony in few shots can't be done by the entrepreneur in a garage. But sneaking into orbit bit by bit is very feasible. And as launches become ever more common the left over space will be more available and inexpensive. Space start-up have to do more with less until it can all be combined into a single system.

Micro-Launch Company

As technology continues to make things smaller and smaller satellites can now be created with vast capabilities that are about the size of your fist or smaller. Today these micro-sats are normally launched in conjunction with some larger payload. They just help to fill up a large rocket.

The trouble is that all launch systems of today are prohibitively expensive even if you are just piggy-backing. (The launch of a CubeSat can be over $100,000) The reason the launch systems of today are so expensive is because most rockets are enormously complex and expensive machines which only fly once and are then destroyed. They also require armies of support to get them prepared and launched and have to meet very special requirements for the satellite that they are launching. It is a very high risk business and an incredibly bloated one.

Large rockets used to be the only way to get anything into orbit. But since we now have micro-sats its time for a micro-launcher.

An opportunity exists to completely re-work the space launch mantra. Instead of big and expensive, launches could be made small and cheap with payloads of just 1-5 pounds using a small disposable launcher.

After all, since the payloads are cheaper and require less precision, a company can create a rocket that they, basically, just point at the sky and light a fuse. It could be made cheaply and with far less precision that any of the larger rockets. More or less it would be an upscaled hobby rocket.

Now, even hobby rockets are not cheap when one starts to reach for high altitudes. The company that works with micro-launches will have to be able to mass produce their vehicle in order to keep the cost down. Rockets that come off the assembly line in droves is not a practice anywhere in the space industry. This is where a scrappy start-up can get an edge.

Now if a company where to be capable of mass-producing orbital/sub-orbital rockets the single problem they might have is whether the demand will meet the supply. There are not a huge number of satellites being created today. The key in the beginning will be to create alternate reasons to launch. Things like space burials, (cremated remains) time-capsule launches, and other less scientific and broader market reasons to send a rocket to space. These alternate sources of revenue would be able to sustain a company until people realize that satellite launches are cheap enough that they can be performed by smaller hobby groups or even individuals. If the price to launch a CubeSat were brought down to under $10,000 then a whole DIY satellite industry would open up.

Up Aerospace is already working towards this goal of an affordable micro-launcher. They are starting like most new space companies by creating a sounding rocket that is able to launch small experiments into sub-orbital space.

The SpaceX Assembly Line

While the mass production of small launchers is a relatively unexplored option the main risk to this business would not be technical problems or even demand. It would be competition from reusable craft like Skylon or even a SpaceX upgrade that makes the micro-launcher too expensive. Reusable spacecraft are expected to bring the cost of orbital launches down to around $10-100 per pound within the next twenty years. It is doubtful that even a rocket with the benefit of economy of scale would be able to match that. It is like the difference between buying a Cessna or a 787 for one trip. If you have to buy the whole 787 for the trip then you will buy the Cessna. But if the 787 is just selling a ticket on one trip, then you will ignore the Cessna.

But though a mass produced disposable rocket may become too expensive, the lessons learned from that early part of the business would help to make a small mass produced reusable rocket. One would have to do some deeper number crunching to see what the margins would be like on this, but it is very likely possible. Not to mention that fact that some micro-sats will pay extra to not have to piggy-back on another satellite.

Overall, the concept of launching ultra-small payloads affordably is untouched. And though the door of opportunity might be closing it has the potential to give someone a chance to get their foot in the door of the industry at a cost significantly less that a full scale launch company.

Extra:
OTRAG was an early attempt at mass production of space launchers